The Foundation for Energy and Environmental Sustainability FUNSEAM, presented a new strategic report in October.
This FUNSEAM report by Mariano Marzo, Professor of Stratigraphy and professor of Energy and Petroleum Geology at the Faculty of Geology of the University of Barcelona. Member of the Royal Academy of Sciences and Arts of Barcelona and member of the Board and the Academic Committee of the Spanish Energy Club.
According to the author, with an eye on horizon 2035, the WEO examines the implications of different scenarios, both in energy and the issue of climate change, providing data that may help authorities, industry and other interested parties to make appropriate decisions in the fast-changing energy.
The followingconclusions are highlighted:
1) The center of gravity of energy demand is shifting dramatically to emerging economies.
2) The relationship between economy and energy will have a special relevance in the future due to high oil prices, the persistent differences between regions in the prices of gas and electricity, as well as by rising bills that many countries will have to bear in the form of energy imports.
3) Large regional differences in energy prices are prompting an intense debate about their role in promoting or frustrating economic growth.
4) Regional variations in energy prices will affect competitiveness, influencing investment decisions and corporate strategies.
5) countries can cushion the impact of high prices by promoting more efficient, competitive and interconnected energy markets. In addition, differences in costs between different regional gas markets could be reduced by a rapid transition to a global market for natural gas.
6) The drive for efficiency is taking hold in many parts of the world, which will bring benefits that go beyond improvements in competitiveness in the industry.
7) Overall, during the period from 2012 to 2035, fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) will remain the main sources of primary energy, with the implications that this has on the environment and climate change.
8) Strengthening economic competitiveness does not mean reducing efforts in the fight against climate change.
9) The ability of technological advances to take advantage of new types of resources such as light tight oil (or LTO) and to undertake the exploitation of fields in ultra-deep waters and to improve recovery rates in mature fields is pushing up estimates of recoverable oil resources.
10) The Middle East, the only major source of cheap oil, will continue to play a key role in the overall long-term supply.
11) The need to offset the decline in production in the fields currently in operation will be the main impetus for investment in exploration and production in the sector until 2035.
12) Mobility and petrochemical oil demand will keep rising until 2035, although the pace of growth will slow.
13) Globally, refiners face major changes in the composition of oil supply and demand for petroleum products, which is a series of increasingly complex challenges and not all refineries are well prepared in this regard.
14) The new geography of supply and demand will lead to a reorientation of the commercial flow of oil to the Asian markets, which will mean further efforts in international cooperation to ensure security of supply.
15) Renewables will account for almost half of the overall increase in electricity production between 2012 and 2035, with wind and photovoltaic solar accounting for 45% of this expansion.
16) Coal will continue to be cheaper than natural gas for electricity generation in many regions, but policy decisions to improve efficiency, reduce air pollution and mitigate climate change, will be essential to determine long term prospects.
17) Market conditions for natural gas vary considerably regionally, but its flexibility and environmental benefits compared to other fossil fuels suggest an increased use in long term.
18) Brazil is poised to become a major exporter of oil and a global leader in energy production.
19) The abundant and diverse energy resources in Brazil will support an increase of 80% in energy consumption, including the achievement of universal access to electricity.
20) Despite the widespread availability and use of fossil fuels, the Brazilian energy sector will be one of the least carbon intensive in the world.